In silico evidence implicating novel mechanisms of Prunella vulgaris L. as a potential botanical drug against COVID-19-associated acute kidney injury.

COVID-19-associated acute kidney injury (COVID-19 AKI) is an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality and has the potential to progress to chronic kidney disease. Prunella vulgaris L., a traditional Chinese herb that has been used for the treatment of a variety of kidney diseases for centuries, could have the potential to treat this complication. In this study, we studied the potential protective role of Prunella vulgaris in COVID-19 AKI and explored its specific mechanisms applied by network pharmacology and bioinformatics methods. The combination of the protein-protein interaction network and Gene Ontology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes enrichment -target gene network revealed eight key target genes (VEGFA, ICAM1, IL6, CXCL8, IL1B, CCL2, IL10 and RELA). Molecular docking showed that all these eight gene-encoded proteins could be effectively bound to three major active compounds (quercetin, luteolin and kaempferol), thus becoming potential therapeutic targets. Molecular dynamics simulation also supports the binding stability of RELA-encoded protein with quercetin and luteolin. Together, our data suggest that IL6, VEGFA, and RELA could be the potential drug targets by inhibiting the NF-κB signaling pathway. Our in silico studies shed new insights into P. vulgaris and its ingredients, e.g., quercetin, as potential botanical drugs against COVID-19 AKI, and warrant further studies on efficacy and mechanisms.

The Role of "Hierarchical and Classified Prevention and Control Measures (HCPC)" Strategy for SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in Guangzhou: A Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: The Delta variant of SARS-COV-2 has replaced previously circulating strains around the world in 2021. Sporadic outbreaks of the Delta variant in China have posed a concern about how to properly respond to the battle against evolving COVID-19. Here, we analyzed the "hierarchical and classified prevention and control (HCPC)" measures strategy deployed during the recent Guangzhou outbreak. METHODS: A modified susceptible-exposed-pre-symptomatic-infectious-recovered (SEPIR) model was developed and applied to study a range of different scenarios to evaluate the effectiveness of policy deployment. We simulated severe different scenarios to understand policy implementation and timing of implementation. Two outcomes were measured: magnitude of transmission and duration of transmission. The outcomes of scenario evaluations were presented relative to the reality case (i.e., 368 cases in 34 days) with 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: Based on our simulation, the outbreak would become out of control with 7 million estimated infections under the assumption of the absence of any interventions than the 153 reported cases in reality in Guangzhou. The simulation on delayed implementation of interventions showed that the total case numbers would also increase by 166.67%-813.07% if the interventions were delayed by 3 days or 7 days. CONCLUSIONS: It may be concluded that timely and more precise interventions including mass testing and graded community management are effective measures for Delta variant containment in China.

Full-coverage mapping and spatiotemporal variations of ground-level ozone (O3) pollution from 2013 to 2020 across China

Ozone (O₃) is an important trace and greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, posing a threat to the ecological environment and human health at the ground level. Large-scale and long-term studies of O₃ pollution in China are few due to highly limited direct ground and satellite measurements. This study offers a new perspective to estimate ground-level O₃ from solar radiation intensity and surface temperature by employing an extended ensemble learning of the space-time extremely randomized trees (STET) model, together with ground-based observations, remote sensing products, atmospheric reanalysis, and an emission inventory. A full-coverage (100%), high-resolution (10 km) and high-quality daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) ground-level O₃ dataset covering China (called ChinaHighO₃) from 2013 to 2020 was generated. Our MDA8 O₃ estimates (predictions) are reliable, with an average out-of-sample (out-of-station) coefficient of determination of 0.87 (0.80) and root-mean-square error of 17.10 (21.10) μg/m³ in China. The unique advantage of the full coverage of our dataset allowed us to accurately capture a short-term severe O₃ pollution exposure event that took place from 23 April to 8 May in 2020. Also, a rapid increase and recovery of O₃ concentrations associated with variations in anthropogenic emissions were seen during and after the COVID-19 lockdown, respectively. Trends in O₃ concentration showed an average growth rate of 2.49 μg/m³/yr (p < 0.001) from 2013 to 2020, along with the continuous expansion of polluted areas exceeding the daily O₃ standard (i.e., MDA8 O₃ = 160 μg/m³). Summertime O₃ concentrations and the probability of occurrence of daily O₃ pollution have significantly increased since 2015, especially in the North China Plain and the main air pollution transmission belt (i.e., the "2 + 26” cities). However, a decline in both was seen in 2020, mainly due to the coordinated control of air pollution and ongoing COVID-19 effects. This carefully vetted and smoothed dataset is valuable for studies on air pollution and environmental health in China.

Stability of SARS-CoV-2 on inanimate surfaces: A review.

The stability of SARS-CoV-2 for varying periods on a wide range of inanimate surfaces has raised concerns about surface transmission; however, there is still no evidence to confirm this route. In the present review, three variables affecting virus stability, namely temperature, relative humidity (RH), and initial virus titer, were considered from different experimental studies. The stability of SARS-CoV-2 on the surfaces of six different contact materials, namely plastic, metal, glass, protective equipment, paper, and fabric, and the factors affecting half-life period was systematically reviewed. The results showed that the half-life of SARS-CoV-2 on different contact materials was generally 2-10 h, up to 5 d, and as short as 30 min at 22 °C, whereas the half-life of SARS-CoV-2 on non-porous surfaces was generally 5-9 h d, up to 3 d, and as short as 4 min at 22 â„ƒ. The half-life on porous surfaces was generally 1-5 h, up to 2 d, and as short as 13 min at 22 °C. Therefore, the half-life period of SARS-CoV-2 on non-porous surfaces is longer than that on porous surfaces, and thehalf-life of the virus decreases with increasing temperature, whereas RH produces a stable negative inhibitory effect only in a specific humidity range. Various disinfection precautions can be implemented in daily life depending on the stability of SARS-CoV-2 on different surfaces to interrupt virus transmission, prevent COVID-19 infections, and avoid over-disinfection. Owing to the more stringent control of conditions in laboratory studies and the lack of evidence of transmission through surfaces in the real world, it is difficult to provide strong evidence for the efficiency of transmission of the contaminant from the surface to the human body. Therefore, we suggest that future research should focus on exploring the systematic study of the entire transmission process of the virus, which will provide a theoretical basis for optimizing global outbreak prevention and control measures.

Coarse particulate matter air quality in East Asia: implications for fine particulate nitrate

Air quality network data in China and South Korea show very high year-round mass concentrations of coarse particulate matter (PM), as inferred by the difference between PM10 and PM2.5. Coarse PM concentrations in 2015 averaged 52 µg m-3 in the North China Plain (NCP) and 23 µg m-3 in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), contributing nearly half of PM10. Strong daily correlations between coarse PM and carbon monoxide imply a dominant source from anthropogenic fugitive dust. Coarse PM concentrations in the NCP and the SMA decreased by 21 % from 2015 to 2019 and further dropped abruptly in 2020 due to COVID-19 reductions in construction and vehicle traffic. Anthropogenic coarse PM is generally not included in air quality models but scavenges nitric acid to suppress the formation of fine particulate nitrate, a major contributor to PM2.5 pollution. GEOS-Chem model simulation of surface and aircraft observations from the Korea–United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) campaign over the SMA in May–June 2016 shows that consideration of anthropogenic coarse PM largely resolves the previous model overestimate of fine particulate nitrate. The effect is smaller in the NCP which has a larger excess of ammonia. Model sensitivity simulations for 2015–2019 show that decreasing anthropogenic coarse PM directly increases PM2.5 nitrate in summer, offsetting 80 % the effect of nitrogen oxide and ammonia emission controls, while in winter the presence of coarse PM increases the sensitivity of PM2.5 nitrate to ammonia and sulfur dioxide emissions. Decreasing coarse PM helps to explain the lack of decrease in wintertime PM2.5 nitrate observed in the NCP and the SMA over the 2015–2021 period despite decreases in nitrogen oxide and ammonia emissions. Continuing decrease of fugitive dust pollution means that more stringent nitrogen oxide and ammonia emission controls will be required to successfully decrease PM2.5 nitrate.

Stability of SARS-CoV-2 on Inanimate Surfaces: A Review

The stability of SARS-CoV-2 for varying periods on a wide range of inanimate surfaces has raised concerns about surface transmission;however, there is still no evidence to confirm this route. In the present review, three variables affecting virus stability, namely temperature, relative humidity (RH), and initial virus titer, were considered from different experimental studies. The stability of SARS-CoV-2 on the surfaces of six different contact materials, namely plastic, metal, glass, protective equipment, paper, and fabric, and the factors affecting half-life period was systematically reviewed. The results showed that the half-life of SARS-CoV-2 on different contact materials was generally 2–10 h, up to 5 d, and as short as 30 min at 22°C, whereas the half-life of SARS-CoV-2 on non-porous surfaces was generally 5–9 h d, up to 3 d, and as short as 4 min at 22℃. The half-life on porous surfaces was generally 1–5 h, up to 2 d, and as short as 13 min at 22°C. Therefore, the half-life period of SARS-CoV-2 on non-porous surfaces is longer than that on porous surfaces, and thehalf-life of the virus decreases with increasing temperature, whereas RH produces a stable negative inhibitory effect only in a specific humidity range. Various disinfection precautions can be implemented in daily life depending on the stability of SARS-CoV-2 on different surfaces to interrupt virus transmission, prevent COVID-19 infections, and avoid over-disinfection. Owing to the more stringent control of conditions in laboratory studies and the lack of evidence of transmission through surfaces in the real world, it is difficult to provide strong evidence for the efficiency of transmission of the contaminant from the surface to the human body. Therefore, we suggest that future research should focus on exploring the systematic study of the entire transmission process of the virus, which will provide a theoretical basis for optimizing global outbreak prevention and control measures.

Peptide valence-induced breaks in plasmonic coupling† † Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available: Materials, synthesis and instrumentations, characterization studies, computational simulations, one-pot assays, table of peptide sequences and molecular weights, table of operation windows of R2 and K2 peptides, structures of ligands and R2 peptide, HPLC and ESI-MS data, CCC, operation windows, LoD, and specificity measurements, initial structures for molecular dynamics simulation, and the colorimetric map of the sensing kit. See DOI: https://doi.org/10.1039/d2sc05837e

Electrostatic interactions are a key driving force that mediates colloidal assembly. The Schulze-Hardy rule states that nanoparticles have a higher tendency to coagulate in the presence of counterions with high charge valence. However, it is unclear how the Schulze–Hardy rule works when the simple electrolytes are replaced with more sophisticated charge carriers. Here, we designed cationic peptides of varying valencies and demonstrate that their charge screening behaviors on anionic gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) follow the six-power relationship in the Schulze–Hardy rule. This finding further inspires a simple yet effective strategy for measuring SARS-CoV-2 main protease (Mpro) via naked eyes. This work provides a unique avenue for fundamental NP disassembly based on the Schulze–Hardy rule and can help design versatile substrates for colorimetric sensing of other proteases. Electrostatic interactions are a key driving force that mediates colloidal assembly.

NLRP3 Inflammasome: A key contributor to the inflammation formation.

Inflammation is an important part of the development of various organ diseases. The inflammasome, as an innate immune receptor, plays an important role in the formation of inflammation. Among various inflammasomes, the NLRP3 inflammasome is the most well studied. The NLRP3 inflammasome is composed of skeletal protein NLRP3, apoptosis-associated speck-like protein (ASC) and pro-caspase-1. There are three types of activation pathways: (1) "classical" activation pathway; (2) "non-canonical" activation pathway; (3) "alternative" activation pathway. The activation of NLRP3 inflammasome is involved in many inflammatory diseases. A variety of factors (such as genetic factors, environmental factors, chemical factors, viral infection, etc.) have been proved to activate NLRP3 inflammasome and promote the inflammatory response of the lung, heart, liver, kidney and other organs in the body. Especially, the mechanism of NLRP3 inflammation and its related molecules in its associated diseases remains not to be summarized, namely they may promote or delay inflammatory diseases in different cells and tissues. This article reviews the structure and function of the NLRP3 inflammasome and its role in various inflammations, including inflammations caused by chemically toxic substances.

Efficacy and Safety of Longyizhengqi Granule in Treatment of Mild COVID-19 Patients Caused by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant: A Prospective Study.

Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate the clinical efficacy of Longyizhengqi granule, a traditional Chinese medicine, in patients with mild COVID-19. Patients and Methods: We conducted a prospective study including mild COVID-19 participants conducted at Mobile Cabin Hospital in Shanghai, China. Participants were assigned to receive Longyizhengqi granule or conventional treatment. The primary outcome was the time for nucleic acid to turn negative and the secondary outcomes are hospital stay and changes in cycle threshold (Ct) values for N gene and Orf gene. Multilevel random-intercept model was performed to analyze the effects of treatment. Results: A total of 3243 patients were included in this study (Longyizhengqi granule 667 patients; conventional treatment 2576 patients). Age (43.5 vs 42.1, p<0.01) and vaccination doses (not vaccinated: 15.8% vs 21.7%, 1 dose: 3.5% vs 2.9%, 2 doses: 27.9% vs 25.6%, 3 doses: 52.8% vs 49.8%. p<0.01) show statistical difference between Conventional treatment group and LYZQ granules group. The use of Longyizhengqi granule could significantly reduce the time for nucleic acid to turn negative (14.2 days vs 10.7 days, p<0.01), shorten hospital stay (12.5 days vs 9.9 days, p<0.01), and increase the changes in Ct value for N gene (8.44 vs 10.33, p<0.01) and Orf gene (7.31 vs 8.44, p<0.01) to approximately 1.5. Moreover, the difference in the changes of Ct values on the 4th, 6th, 8th, and 10th days seem to increase between two groups. No serious adverse events were reported. Conclusion: Longyizhengqi granule might be a promising drug for the treatment of mild COVID-19, and it might be beneficial to effectively shorten the negative transition time of nucleic acid, the total days of hospitalization, and increase the changes of Ct values. Long-term randomized controlled trials with follow-up evaluations are required to confirm its long-term efficacy.

Peptide valence-induced breaks in plasmonic coupling.

Electrostatic interactions are a key driving force that mediates colloidal assembly. The Schulze-Hardy rule states that nanoparticles have a higher tendency to coagulate in the presence of counterions with high charge valence. However, it is unclear how the Schulze-Hardy rule works when the simple electrolytes are replaced with more sophisticated charge carriers. Here, we designed cationic peptides of varying valencies and demonstrate that their charge screening behaviors on anionic gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) follow the six-power relationship in the Schulze-Hardy rule. This finding further inspires a simple yet effective strategy for measuring SARS-CoV-2 main protease (Mpro) via naked eyes. This work provides a unique avenue for fundamental NP disassembly based on the Schulze-Hardy rule and can help design versatile substrates for colorimetric sensing of other proteases.

Corrigendum to "Comprehensive Humoral and Cellular Immune Responses to SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Diverse Chinese Population".

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.34133/2022/9873831.].

Peptide Amphiphile Mediated Co-assembly for Nanoplasmonic Sensing.

Aromatic interactions are commonly involved in the assembly of naturally occurring building blocks, and these interactions can be replicated in an artificial setting to produce functional materials. Here we describe a colorimetric biosensor using co-assembly experiments with plasmonic gold and surfactant-like peptides (SLPs) spanning a wide range of aromatic residues, polar stretches, and interfacial affinities. The SLPs programmed in DDD-(ZZ) x -FFPC self-assemble into higher-order structures in response to a protease and subsequently modulate the colloidal dispersity of gold leading to a colorimetric readout. Results show the strong aggregation propensity of the FFPC tail without polar DDD head. The SLPs were specific to the target protease, i.e., Mpro, a biomarker for SARS-CoV-2. This system is a simple and visual tool that senses Mpro in phosphate buffer, exhaled breath condensate, and saliva with detection limits of 15.7, 20.8, and 26.1 nM, respectively. These results may have value in designing other protease testing methods.

Clinical characteristics of 1139 mild cases of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infected patients in Shanghai.

In March 2022, the Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) surged during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Shanghai, but over 90% of patients were mild. This study included 1139 COVID-19 patients mildly infected with the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Shanghai from May 1 to 10, 2022, aiming to clarify the demographic characteristics and clinical symptoms of patients with mild Omicron infection. The clinical phenotypes of Omicron infection were identified by model-based cluster analysis to explore the features of different clusters. The median age of the patients was 41.0 years [IQR: 31.0-52.0 years] and 73.0% were male. The top three clinical manifestations are cough (57.5%), expectoration (48.3%), and nasal congestion and runny nose (43.4%). The prevalence of nasal congestion and runny nose varied significantly across the doses of vaccinations, with 23.1% in the unvaccinated population and 30%, 45.9%, and 44.3% in the 1-dose, 2-dose and 3-dose vaccinated populations, respectively. In addition, there were significant differences for fever (23.1%, 26.0%, 28.6%, 18.4%), head and body heaviness (15.4%, 14.0%, 26.7%, 22.4%), and loss of appetite (25.6%, 30.0%, 33.6%, 27.7%). The unvaccinated population had a lower incidence of symptoms than the vaccinated population. Cluster analysis revealed that all four clusters had multisystemic symptoms and were dominated by both general and respiratory symptoms. The more severe the degree of the symptoms was, the higher the prevalence of multisystemic symptoms will be. The Omicron variant produced a lower incidence of symptoms in mildly infected patients than previous SARS-CoV-2 variants, but the clinical symptoms caused by the Omicron variant are more complex, so that it needs to be differentiated from influenza.

Early warning signals for Omicron outbreaks in China: a retrospective study.

The Omicron variant has become the dominant COVID-19 variant worldwide due to its rapid and cryptic spread; therefore, successful early warning is of great importance to be able to control epidemics in their early phase, before developing into large outbreaks. COVID-19-related Baidu search index, which reflects human behavior to a certain degree, was used to retrospectively detect the warning signs for Omicron variant outbreaks in China in 2022. The characteristics and effects of warning signs were analyzed in detail. We detected the presence of early warning signs (both high and low thresholds) and found that these occurred 4-7 days earlier than traditional epidemiological surveillance and >20 days earlier than the implementation of the local "lockdown" policy. Compared with the "high threshold" warning, the early warning effect of the "low threshold" is also vital because it indicates a complacency about epidemic prevention and control. However, there is obvious heterogeneity in the optimal threshold for detecting early warning signs and their distribution in different cities. Multi-source and multi-point early warning systems should be established via combining internet-based big data in the future to conduct effective and early real-time warning. This would create precious time for the early control of COVID-19 outbreaks. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Optimizing the nucleic acid screening strategy to mitigate regional outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in China: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND: The Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spreads rapidly and insidiously. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) screening is an important means of blocking community transmission in China, but the costs associated with testing are high. Quarantine capacity and medical resources are also threatened. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate different screening strategies to balance outbreak control and consumption of resources. METHODS: A community network of 2000 people, considering the heterogeneities of household size and age structure, was generated to reflect real contact networks, and a stochastic individual-based dynamic model was used to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission and assess different whole-area nucleic acid screening strategies. We designed a total of 87 screening strategies with different sampling methods, frequencies of screening, and timings of screening. The performance of these strategies was comprehensively evaluated by comparing the cumulative infection rates, the number of tests, and the quarantine capacity and consumption of medical resource, which were expressed as medians (95% uncertainty intervals, 95% UIs). RESULTS: To implement COVID-19 nucleic acid testing for all people (Full Screening), if the screening frequency was four times/week, the cumulative infection rate could be reduced to 13% (95% UI: 1%, 51%), the miss rate decreased to 2% (95% UI: 0%, 22%), and the quarantine and medical resource consumption was lower than higher-frequency Full Screening or sampling screening. When the frequency of Full Screening increased from five to seven times/week (which resulted in a 2581 increase in the number of tests per positive case), the cumulative infection rate was only reduced by 2%. Screening all people weekly by splitting them equally into seven batches could reduce infection rates by 73% compared to once per week, which was similar to Full Screening four times/week. Full Screening had the highest number of tests per positive case, while the miss rate, number of tests per positive case, and hotel quarantine resource consumption in Household-based Sampling Screening scenarios were lower than Random Sampling Screening. The cumulative infection rate of Household-based Sampling Screening or Random Sampling Screening seven times/week was similar to that of Full Screening four times/week. CONCLUSIONS: If hotel quarantine, hospital and shelter hospital capacity are seriously insufficient, to stop the spread of the virus as early as possible, high-frequency Full Screening would be necessary, but intermediate testing frequency may be more cost-effective in non-extreme situations. Screening in batches is recommended if the testing capacity is low. Household-based Sampling Screening is potentially a promising strategy to implement.

How fast and how well the Omicron epidemic was curtailed. A Guangzhou experience to share.

Introduction: SARS-CoV-2 has ravaged the world and undergone multiple mutations during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. On 7 April 2022, an epidemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (BA.2) variant broke out in Guangzhou, China, one of the largest transportation and logistical hubs of the country. Methods: To fast curtained the Omicron epidemic, based on the routine surveillance on the risk population of SARS-CoV-2 infection, we identify key places of the epidemic and implement enhanced control measures against Omicron. Results: Transmission characteristics of the Omicron variant were analyzed for 273 confirmed cases, and key places involved in this epidemic were fully presented. The median incubation time and the generation time were 3 days, and the reproduction number Rt was sharply increased with a peak of 4.20 within 2 days. We tried an all-out effort to tackle the epidemic in key places, and the proportion of confirmed cases increased from 61.17% at Stage 2 to 88.89% at Stage 4. Through delimited risk area management, 99 cases were found, and the cases were isolated in advance for 2.61 ± 2.76 days in a lockdown zone, 0.44 ± 1.08 days in a controlled zone, and 0.27 ± 0.62 days in a precautionary zone. People assigned with yellow code accounted for 30.32% (84/277) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, and 83.33% of them were detected positive over 3 days since code assignment. For the districts outside the epicenter, the implementation duration of NPIs was much shorter compared with the Delta epidemic last year. Conclusion: By blocking out transmission risks and adjusting measures to local epidemic conditions through the all-out effort to tackle the epidemic in key places, by delimiting risk area management, and by conducting health code management of the at-risk population, the Omicron epidemic could be contained quickly.

Spacer Matters: All-Peptide-Based Ligand for Promoting Interfacial Proteolysis and Plasmonic Coupling.

Plasmonic coupling via nanoparticle assembly is a popular signal-generation method in bioanalytical sensors. Here, we customized an all-peptide-based ligand that carries an anchoring group, polyproline spacer, biomolecular recognition, and zwitterionic domains for functionalizing gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) as a colorimetric enzyme sensor. Our results underscore the importance of the polyproline module, which enables the SARS-CoV-2 main protease (Mpro) to recognize the peptidic ligand on nanosurfaces for subsequent plasmonic coupling via Coulombic interactions. AuNP aggregation is favored by the lowered surface potential due to enzymatic unveiling of the zwitterionic module. Therefore, this system provides a naked-eye measure for Mpro. No proteolysis occurs on AuNPs modified with a control ligand lacking a spacer domain. Overall, this all-peptide-based ligand does not require complex molecular conjugations and hence offers a simple and promising route for plasmonic sensing other proteases.

Quantitatively evaluate the impact of domestic aviation control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in China.

To quantitatively evaluate the impact of domestic aviation control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in China. The number of international flights from March to September 2019 simulated the number of flights from March to September 2020 without implementing aviation control measures. In addition, the proportion of asymptomatic persons and the delay in case reporting were adjusted to estimate the prevalence of each country during the same period and calculate the estimated imported cases. The estimated imported cases were assigned each day with weight, and the estimated daily reported cases were obtained based on the actual daily number of domestic cases in China. Effective Reproduction Number ([Formula: see text]) was calculated based on delayed distribution, Basic Reproductive Number ([Formula: see text]) distribution, and generation time distribution were reported in previous studies. Gaussian Process was used to estimate the effect of time-varying on [Formula: see text], and the estimated [Formula: see text] was compared with the actual [Formula: see text]. The estimated imported cases increased significantly compared with the actual number of imported cases. The estimated imported cases were mainly concentrated in North America and Europe from March to April and gradually increased in many East Asian countries from May to September. The difference between predicted [Formula: see text] and actual [Formula: see text] was statistically significant. The estimated imported cases and the estimated [Formula: see text] have increased compared to the actual situation. This paper quantitatively proves that Chinese aviation control measures significantly suppress the COVID-19 epidemic, which is conducive to promoting and applying this measure.

Optimization of COVID-19 prevention and control measures during the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics: a model-based study.

BACKGROUND: The continuous mutation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has made the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic complicated to predict and posed a severe challenge to the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and Winter Paralympics held in February and March 2022. METHODS: During the preparations for the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics, we established a dynamic model with pulse detection and isolation effect to evaluate the effect of epidemic prevention and control measures such as entry policies, contact reduction, nucleic acid testing, tracking, isolation, and health monitoring in a closed-loop management environment, by simulating the transmission dynamics in assumed scenarios. We also compared the importance of each parameter in the combination of intervention measures through sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: At the assumed baseline levels, the peak of the epidemic reached on the 57th day. During the simulation period (100 days), 13,382 people infected COVID-19. The mean and peak values of hospitalized cases were 2650 and 6746, respectively. The simulation and sensitivity analysis showed that: (1) the most important measures to stop COVID-19 transmission during the event were daily nucleic acid testing, reducing contact among people, and daily health monitoring, with cumulative infections at 0.04%, 0.14%, and 14.92% of baseline levels, respectively (2) strictly implementing the entry policy and reducing the number of cases entering the closed-loop system could delay the peak of the epidemic by 9 days and provide time for medical resources to be mobilized; (3) the risk of environmental transmission was low. CONCLUSIONS: Comprehensive measures under certain scenarios such as reducing contact, nucleic acid testing, health monitoring, and timely tracking and isolation could effectively prevent virus transmission. Our research results provided an important reference for formulating prevention and control measures during the Winter Olympics, and no epidemic spread in the closed-loop during the games indirectly proved the rationality of our research results.